Forecasts now point to 2026 global growth of 2.7%-3.1%, with the article framing the outlook as a structural stress test rather than a single-crisis downturn.
Oil above $96 a barrel after the Iran-US ceasefire collapse has revived inflation pressure, cut energy inventories and undermined assumptions that Middle East conflict would stay contained.
More than $1 trillion in annual US interest payments, Europe’s refinancing strain and expanding shadow banking are adding financial fragility as central banks keep policy tighter for longer.
AI investment is still supporting activity, but heavy capital spending with limited near-term revenue has raised correction risks in tech and exposed developing economies to a lower-growth trap.
Bangladesh illustrates the spillover: a BDT 9.38 trillion budget targets 6.5% growth, yet the economy slowed to 2.2% in one quarter while floods killed at least 54 people.