AIA Sees 0.3% Drop in 2026 U.S. Nonresidential Spending as Data Centers Outperform
Updated
Updated · Archinect · Jul 24
AIA Sees 0.3% Drop in 2026 U.S. Nonresidential Spending as Data Centers Outperform
1 articles · Updated · Archinect · Jul 24
Summary
$846 billion U.S. nonresidential building spending is forecast to slip 0.3% in 2026 after a 2% decline in 2025, with AIA describing the market as sharply K-shaped.
A 7% nominal drop through the first five months of 2026 underscores the slowdown, which AIA ties to high interest rates, inflation, tariffs, labor shortages, geopolitical uncertainty and higher oil prices.
Manufacturing faces the steepest pullback, with 2026 spending now projected to fall 11.6% after a 6.7% decline in 2025 as earlier federal funding fades and capital investment decisions stay cautious.
Commercial spending is still expected to rise 4.8% in 2026, but that growth is largely a data-center story; excluding those projects, the sector would post a 1% decline.
Institutional construction remains a relative bright spot, with spending projected to rise 2.8% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, led by healthcare and recreation projects.