Study Links 1789 Australian Smallpox Outbreak to British Fleet, Killing 220,000 Indigenous People
Updated
Updated · Livescience.com · Jul 20
Study Links 1789 Australian Smallpox Outbreak to British Fleet, Killing 220,000 Indigenous People
1 articles · Updated · Livescience.com · Jul 20
Summary
A new modeling study says the 1789 smallpox outbreak in Australia most likely began with dried smallpox scabs carried by the British First Fleet for inoculations, not through later contact in the continent’s far north.
Researchers found the disease pattern fits an origin near Port Jackson, while a northern route from Makassar-linked fishers failed in simulations because the outbreak could not plausibly cross thousands of miles of sparsely inhabited desert.
The study argues the virus may have survived the 1788 voyage because British medics could have replenished scab vials during stops at Cape Town or Rio de Janeiro, despite no recorded smallpox cases aboard the 11-ship fleet.
It estimates about 220,000 Indigenous Australians died and says the epidemic helped drive a rapid cultural collapse after colonization.
A related forthcoming study from the same team puts the pre-1788 Indigenous population at up to 3 million—far above older estimates near 300,000—with theoretical carrying capacity as high as 5 million.
Why did a devastating plague erupt a full year after the British fleet arrived carrying the virus?
If millions more Indigenous people died than once thought, what does this reveal about Australia's history?
The 1789 Smallpox Epidemic in Australia: Catastrophic Impact, Contested Origins, and Enduring Trauma for Indigenous Peoples
Overview
Recent research confirms that the 1789 smallpox epidemic, which devastated Indigenous Australians, was introduced by the British First Fleet after their arrival in 1788. The disease spread rapidly along coastlines and rivers, causing catastrophic loss of life and cultural disruption, but did not reach every part of Australia. The outbreak’s timing and the colonists’ immunity strongly link its origin to the British, though debate continues over whether its introduction was intentional or accidental. The epidemic’s impact left lasting trauma, but Indigenous communities have shown remarkable resilience, preserving their identity and oral histories despite immense challenges.