Study Ties First Fleet to 220,000 Indigenous Australian Deaths in 1789 Smallpox Epidemic
Updated
Updated · The Conversation · Jul 9
Study Ties First Fleet to 220,000 Indigenous Australian Deaths in 1789 Smallpox Epidemic
3 articles · Updated · The Conversation · Jul 9
Summary
A new Nature Human Behaviour study says the 1789 smallpox outbreak around Sydney most likely originated from the British First Fleet just 16 months after colonization began.
Transmission modelling found no plausible route for smallpox to travel from northern Australia to Sydney in time, undercutting the long-running theory that Makassan traders introduced it first.
The researchers say the disease may have spread along coastlines and major rivers for up to 21 years, reaching as far north as Townsville and as far west as Adelaide.
Using revised population estimates, the model puts the death toll at as many as 220,000 Aboriginal people; the exact trigger remains unclear, though stored variola matter for inoculation is one possible source.
The findings recast the epidemic as a continent-scale colonial catastrophe whose demographic and cultural damage to Indigenous communities lasted across generations.