Updated

Updated · Alabama Emergency Management Agency (.gov) · Jul 17

Eastern Gulf Low Gains 10% Development Chance in 48 Hours as Alabama Rain Threat Builds

Updated

Updated · Alabama Emergency Management Agency (.gov) · Jul 17

Eastern Gulf Low Gains 10% Development Chance in 48 Hours as Alabama Rain Threat Builds

Q: The hurricane 'Cone of Uncertainty' gets a 2026 update. Will this finally fix its deadly misinterpretations?

Probably not completely, but the 2026 update should reduce some of the most dangerous misunderstandings. The National Hurricane Center’s cone has long been misread as a map of where all impacts will occur. It is not. It shows the probable path of the storm’s center, while rain, storm surge, tornadoes and damaging winds can extend far outside it. That matters in situations like the developing Gulf system now being watched near Alabama and Florida, where officials are already stressing that heavy rain could be the main threat even before any named storm forms. The 2026 changes are aimed directly at that problem. The operational cone now shows the full extent of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, not just coastal alerts. That should help inland communities see they are still at risk after landfall. The NHC is also testing an experimental 90% cone, using ellipses instead of circles, to better capture uncertainty in both direction and speed. That may reduce the false impression that areas just outside the cone are safe. But the update is not a cure-all. Even a 90% cone still leaves some storm tracks outside it, and no cone can fully show flooding rain or storm surge risk. Experts continue to warn about the “containment effect” — the tendency to treat the cone as a hard boundary. The practical takeaway remains the same: use the cone as one tool, not the only one, and follow local forecasts and hazard-specific warnings, especially for rainfall and flooding.

3 articles · Updated · Alabama Emergency Management Agency (.gov) · Jul 17

NHC's latest outlook places the developing low in the eastern Gulf, moving very slowly northward over the next several days.
A 10% chance of tropical development is forecast within 48 hours, rising to 30% over seven days because models increasingly keep the system over the northern Gulf.
Southern Alabama faces a growing threat of heavy rainfall this weekend into next week, though forecasters say impacts, track and intensity remain highly uncertain until a defined low actually forms.
A smaller scenario still takes the system into Florida, prompting Alabama emergency officials to urge residents to review tropical storm and hurricane plans.