Meteorologists Track 2 Tropical Areas as Atlantic Hurricane Season Nears Its August-October Peak

Q: With record ocean heat, could a predicted 'below-average' hurricane season still produce a catastrophic storm?

Yes. A below-average Atlantic season can still produce a catastrophic hurricane, and record ocean heat raises that risk for any storm that does form. The 2026 outlook is quieter mainly because a strengthening El Niño is expected to increase wind shear over the Atlantic, which usually suppresses storm formation. NOAA says there is a 55% chance of a below-average season. But seasonal forecasts describe the total number of storms, not where they go or how intense one storm may become. That distinction matters because hurricanes draw energy from warm water. Parts of the Gulf of Mexico and waters off the Southeast are running above average, with record warmth in the Gulf. Warm water and high upper-ocean heat content can help storms strengthen quickly, sometimes through rapid intensification, even if the broader season is not very active. Research and recent history support that warning. Scientists broadly agree that while total storm counts are not necessarily rising, the share of storms reaching Category 4 or 5 is increasing as oceans warm. Damage also rises sharply with wind speed, and warmer air can produce heavier rainfall and worse flooding. In the U.S., most billion-dollar tropical cyclones in recent decades rapidly intensified. History shows quiet seasons are no guarantee of safety. In 1992, a below-average season still produced Hurricane Andrew, one of the most destructive U.S. storms on record. Experts’ message is consistent: it only takes one storm.

Q: Is Florida trading a severe drought for a dangerous flood threat this coming week?

Yes—parts of Florida are likely shifting from drought relief to at least a localized flood threat next week, though not a uniform statewide flooding emergency. Forecasters are watching a low-pressure area expected to form in the northeastern Gulf near Florida’s Big Bend this weekend. The National Hurricane Center gives it only a low chance of tropical development, around 20% over seven days, but the bigger concern is heavy rain regardless of whether it becomes a named system. That rain could be substantial. Current forecasts call for widespread totals of 2 to 4 inches across parts of Florida, with isolated amounts above 5 inches possible as the system moves across the state and into the Atlantic next week. Florida has been running roughly 5 to 14 inches below normal rainfall since last August, so the moisture would be beneficial for drought-stricken areas. But beneficial rain can still become hazardous. Repeated tropical downpours over a short period can trigger flash flooding, especially in low-lying, urban, and poor-drainage areas. In drought-hit regions, hardened dry soil can also increase runoff rather than absorb water efficiently, raising localized flood risk. So the answer is yes in a limited sense: Florida is not necessarily trading drought for a broad, dangerous statewide flood disaster, but some areas could quickly go from badly needed rain to flooding problems if the heaviest bands set up overhead. The main threat next week is heavy rainfall, not wind.

3 articles · Updated · WYFF4 Greenville · Jul 16

Two tropical areas were under watch on July 16, with the nearer-term concern a low-pressure area forecast to form near Florida’s Big Bend this weekend.
That Gulf system could organize as it crosses Florida into the Atlantic this weekend and next week, and even without tropical development it is expected to bring beneficial rain to Florida and parts of the Southeast.
Near the Cape Verde Islands, a separate cluster of disorganized showers and storms may develop slowly into the weekend while moving north-northwest, but forecasters do not currently expect it to become a tropical system.
The monitoring comes despite an unusually quiet start to the 2026 Atlantic season, with meteorologists noting that the basin’s most active stretch typically runs from August through October.

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WYFF4 Greenville3h ago

Meteorologists Monitor Two Tropical Areas Amidst Approaching Active Hurricane Season

WFTV Orlando3h ago

Orlando hurricane tracker – WFTV

Facebook3h ago

🌴 I’m now watching two tropical areas, but they don’t have the same chances of development—or the same potential impacts., Here’s what the newest data is showing and why the Gulf may matter even if ...

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With record ocean heat, could a predicted 'below-average' hurricane season still produce a catastrophic storm?

Is Florida trading a severe drought for a dangerous flood threat this coming week?

Why do hurricane season forecasts vary so wildly, and which one should coastal residents trust?

Meteorologists Track 2 Tropical Areas as Atlantic Hurricane Season Nears Its August-October Peak

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