Updated

Updated · Sherdog.com · Jul 17

Sherdog Backs 3-Fight Youth Parlay at +137 for UFC Oklahoma City as Women’s Overs Draw Support

Updated

Updated · Sherdog.com · Jul 17

Sherdog Backs 3-Fight Youth Parlay at +137 for UFC Oklahoma City as Women’s Overs Draw Support

Q: Is a 96% winning bet in women's MMA the most reliable trend in all of sports?

No. It may be a strong niche trend, but there is not enough evidence to call it the most reliable trend in all of sports. What Pettry and related MMA betting analysis point to is narrower and more defensible: women’s UFC fights, especially in certain divisions, go long more often than the market sometimes prices. The underlying data supports that general idea. Women’s UFC bouts had a 35.6% stoppage rate in 2025 versus about 50% overall, which helps explain why “over” bets can be attractive. The eye-catching 96% figure comes from a very specific subset: women’s bantamweight fights going over 1.5 rounds, with 27 of 28 cashing since 2020. That is notable, and in MMA terms unusually strong. But it is still a small sample in one division, over one time frame, and not proof of a universal sports-betting law. It also matters that reliability is not the same as profitability. A bet can win very often and still offer limited value if the odds are heavily juiced, as with lines like -385. One upset can erase several small gains. Professional betting analysis focuses more on expected value and return on investment than raw win rate. There is also no credible basis in the provided reporting to rank this above trends across every other sport. Sportsbooks adjust quickly when patterns become obvious. So the fair takeaway is that women’s MMA overs are a legitimate, data-backed angle, but calling a 96% run the most reliable trend in all of sports overstates the evidence.

3 articles · Updated · Sherdog.com · Jul 17

Sherdog’s main UFC Oklahoma City betting angle is a +137 three-fight parlay on younger fighters—Dricus Du Plessis, Christian Leroy Duncan and Chase Hooper—arguing age gaps could tilt key matchups.
The analysis says Du Plessis, 32, over Kamaru Usman, 39, is the riskiest leg, while Duncan is 12 years younger than Jared Cannonier and Hooper, 26, faces a winless-in-UFC opponent in Rafa Garcia Ramirez.
Sherdog’s second featured play backs women’s fight overs: Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline over 2.5 rounds at -385 and Anna Melisano vs. Dione Barbosa over 1.5 rounds at -165.
That case leans on UFC-wide trends—women made up 15% of 2025 bouts, with a 35.6% stoppage rate versus the promotion’s 50% overall finish rate—plus both featured matchups showing strong decision histories.