Updated

Updated · Yahoo Sports · Jul 18

Du Plessis Tipped to Beat Usman by Decision at +170 as Over 3.5 Rounds Draws Support

Updated

Updated · Yahoo Sports · Jul 18

Du Plessis Tipped to Beat Usman by Decision at +170 as Over 3.5 Rounds Draws Support

Q: Is Kamaru Usman's risky move to middleweight a final shot at glory or the definitive end of his championship contention?

Kamaru Usman’s move to middleweight looks more like a final, all-or-nothing bid for relevance than a sustainable new title run. The upside is real. Usman is a former welterweight champion with elite wrestling, proven five-round stamina, and a style that could test Dricus Du Plessis in ways others have not. His short-notice loss to Khamzat Chimaev at a higher weight showed he can compete physically at 185, and a full camp without a harsh welterweight cut may help his durability and pace. If he beats Du Plessis, a former middleweight champion and current top contender, he would likely move straight into the title conversation, especially with Sean Strickland targeting the winner. But the evidence points to this being his last serious window. Usman is 39, has known knee issues, limited recent activity, and is entering a division where he is naturally smaller. He is also only 1-3 in his last four high-level fights before this stretch, and betting markets have him as a clear underdog. Du Plessis, by contrast, is 32, a proven middleweight, and widely favored because of his size, age, and recent body of work at 185. So the answer is both: it is a final shot at glory, and if he loses, it likely marks the end of his championship contention. A win would revive his path immediately. A loss would make another title push in either division difficult to justify.

Q: With champion Strickland having lost to both men, can tonight's winner truly claim to be the division's undisputed top contender?

Not unequivocally. The winner in Oklahoma City would have a strong case for a title shot, but “undisputed” top-contender status is harder to claim in a crowded middleweight picture. If Dricus Du Plessis wins, his argument is the clearest. He is a former middleweight champion, is ranked No. 2, owns two wins over current champion Sean Strickland, and already has elite wins in the division, including Robert Whittaker. Even with his 2025 title loss to Khamzat Chimaev, a victory over another former champion would likely put him at or near the front of the line. If Kamaru Usman wins, the claim is much weaker. He is a former welterweight champion moving fully to 185 pounds, and his middleweight résumé remains thin. His past win over Strickland came years ago and outside the current middleweight title context, while his only prior UFC appearance tied to this weight class was a loss to Chimaev. Beating Du Plessis would be significant, but it would not automatically erase questions about divisional standing. The larger issue is that other contenders still have live claims. Chimaev remains relevant after taking the belt from Du Plessis before losing it to Strickland, and other ranked middleweights are still in the mix. So the winner can likely say he is a leading contender, and Du Plessis especially could argue he deserves the next shot, but “undisputed” is probably too strong.

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Sports · Jul 18

Dricus Du Plessis is projected to edge Kamaru Usman on the scorecards in Saturday’s UFC Fight Night main event, with the analyst favoring a decision win over the straighter -260 moneyline.
Over 3.5 rounds at -195 is the preferred wager because both former champions have shown unusual durability—Du Plessis has never been finished in 10 UFC fights, and Usman has been stopped only once since 2013.
Usman, 39, is moving up to middleweight against 32-year-old Du Plessis, a former 185-pound champion whose size and divisional experience are seen as key over five rounds.
Recent trends also point to a long fight: Du Plessis has gone the distance in three of his last four bouts, while Usman has cleared 3.5 rounds in each of his last five.