Study Models Regional Solar Geoengineering to Weaken El Niño, Citing 1 Million Tons of Bushfire Smoke
Updated
Updated · Mother Jones · Jul 12
Study Models Regional Solar Geoengineering to Weaken El Niño, Citing 1 Million Tons of Bushfire Smoke
2 articles · Updated · Mother Jones · Jul 12
Summary
Science Advances published a study modeling marine cloud brightening over the tropical Pacific, finding that reducing sunlight there could have significantly weakened two past El Niño events and their global fallout.
The researchers based the model on the 2019-2020 Australian bushfires, when nearly 1 million metric tons of smoke helped trigger a rare triple-dip La Niña through reflective particles.
Katherine Ricke argues the work reframes solar geoengineering as a regional tool rather than a planet-wide fix, aimed at limiting El Niño-driven heat, floods, droughts and cyclone risks layered onto fossil-fuel warming.
Scientists say the concept appears plausible but remains untested at scale; Andrew Dessler warned real-world deployment could create unforeseen harms and become a political nightmare if countries blame it for weather damage.
Is dimming the sun a necessary emergency tool or a dangerous distraction from the real work of ending fossil fuel dependence?
Could the attempt to tame El Niño accidentally unleash a catastrophic 'mega La Niña' with even worse consequences for the globe?
Marine Cloud Brightening Could Reduce Extreme El Niño Intensity by 20%: Promise, Risks, and Global Governance Challenges
Overview
A new study from Scripps Institution of Oceanography, published in July 2026, explores marine cloud brightening (MCB) as a targeted geoengineering strategy to weaken extreme El Niño events. By injecting sea salt aerosols into low-lying marine clouds over the Pacific, MCB increases cloud reflectivity, which can cool the region and disrupt the feedback loops that drive El Niño. The research suggests that strategically deployed MCB could reduce the intensity of extreme El Niño events by up to 20%, potentially lessening global weather disruptions like droughts, floods, and hurricanes. This approach highlights both the promise and complexity of climate intervention.