WMO Warns El Niño Could Hit Record Strength in 2026 as July-September Risks Climb
Updated
Updated · CNN · Jul 6
WMO Warns El Niño Could Hit Record Strength in 2026 as July-September Risks Climb
3 articles · Updated · CNN · Jul 6
Summary
WMO said El Niño is already underway and is likely to intensify rapidly from July through September, raising the risk of heatwaves on land, marine heatwaves and other extreme weather worldwide.
Record-warm tropical Pacific waters over the past month — driven by hot water shifting east from the western Pacific — have pushed model forecasts toward a very strong, potentially unprecedented peak later this year.
Only a handful of "Super El Niño" events have occurred in recent decades, with 2015-16 the latest; some models now suggest this one could be the strongest since at least 1950.
The agency's July-September outlook points to broadly above-average global temperatures and El Niño-like rainfall shifts, while stronger impacts typically peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
A hotter climate adds uncertainty because no El Niño this intense has unfolded against today’s record sea-surface temperatures, potentially amplifying flooding, drought, crop losses and humanitarian needs.
With climate change amplifying El Niño's fury, are our disaster preparedness models already obsolete?
This record El Niño threatens global supply chains. Could it really shut down the Panama Canal next year?
As El Niño fuels a global disease surge, is our healthcare system ready for the financial and human cost?
The 2026 El Niño Crisis: Amplified Global Risks, Food Security Threats, and Urgent Preparedness in a Warming World
Overview
The 2026 El Niño is developing rapidly, marked by significant warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. This warming triggers shifts in global atmospheric circulation, which in turn leads to severe weather events like heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall across many regions. Scientists are concerned that these extreme weather patterns could disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and threaten human well-being. The risks are even greater because ongoing climate change is amplifying the impacts of El Niño, making extreme events more frequent and intense. As a result, the world faces heightened challenges in managing the effects of this powerful climate phenomenon.