Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jul 9
Opta Rates France Top Quarter-Final Favorite as England Leads on 23 Big Chances
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jul 9

Opta Rates France Top Quarter-Final Favorite as England Leads on 23 Big Chances

3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jul 9

Summary

  • Opta’s quarter-final analysis ranks France, Spain, Argentina and England as the most likely semi-finalists, while identifying a standout statistical edge for each of the eight teams left.
  • France’s case rests on 33 carries ending with shots, Spain have conceded just 1.49 expected goals, and England have created a tournament-high 23 big chances.
  • Argentina’s 7 goals from counterattacks, set pieces and penalties underline their attacking variety, while Belgium’s 15 shots from high turnovers point to a pressing threat against Spain.
  • Morocco lead the remaining teams in sprint intensity at 0.75 per kilometre, Norway top chance quality at 0.17 xG per shot, and Switzerland’s direct speed reaches 1.77 metres per second.

Insights

Data reveals every team's strength, but what critical weakness will ultimately decide the World Cup champion?
When Spain’s possession meets Belgium’s high press, which elite strategy will crack first under pressure?
With analytics predicting the favorites, can an underdog's unquantifiable spirit defy the data and cause an upset?