Sutton, AI Back England 2-1 and France 2-1 in World Cup Quarter-Finals

Q: With key players injured, which underdog has a better chance of staging a quarter-final upset?

Morocco look the more plausible injury-hit underdog to spring a quarter-final surprise. The key reason is that, despite losing Ismael Saibari to a hamstring injury, Morocco still bring a stronger upset profile than Belgium do against Spain. Morocco are not just a sentimental outsider: they are AFCON champions, on a long unbeaten run, and already have a recent history of deep World Cup knockout progress. Their defensive structure remains a major asset, and the expected return of centre-back Chadi Riad helps offset Saibari’s absence. France are rightly favourites, but there are at least some openings. Chris Sutton and the AI both see only a narrow 2-1 France win, which suggests Morocco are viewed as competitive rather than overmatched. France also have a possible concern around Aurelien Tchouameni, and even minor disruption in midfield could matter against a disciplined side. Belgium, by contrast, appear to have the steeper task. Spain are rated the strongest team left by DTAI’s Elo model and top ESPN’s rankings, while Belgium are down at 11th or 12th in those measures. More importantly, Belgium’s own injury issue looks more damaging in context: Amadou Onana is out, weakening a midfield that already looked vulnerable, and most expert forecasts expect a comfortable Spain win. Norway and Switzerland are live outsiders too, but they are not the injury-defined cases in this question. Among the underdogs dealing with key absences, Morocco have the better chance of an upset.

3 articles · Updated · BBC.com · Jul 8

Four quarter-final ties are up next, with Chris Sutton and AI both tipping France to beat Morocco 2-1, Spain to eliminate Belgium, England to edge Norway 2-1, and Argentina to get past Switzerland.
England-Norway is the closest call: Sutton sees a 3-2 England win and AI says 2-1, with both expecting Erling Haaland to threaten but backing Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham to exploit Norway's defence.
France-Morocco is the only exact match, both at 2-1, as Sutton points to France's squad depth and Morocco forward Ismael Saibari's injury as key factors.
Spain are forecast to progress without conceding again—Sutton by 3-0 and AI by 2-0—while Argentina are backed to beat Switzerland despite patchy knockout displays, 2-1 by Sutton and 2-0 by AI.
After 96 of 104 matches, Sutton and AI are level on 61 correct picks each, while BBC predictor-game users lead overall with 68 correct, or 71%.