The Athletic Keeps Messi No. 1 in Updated Top 50 After 2026 World Cup Last 16

Q: Why did Brazil’s star Vinicius Junior fall in the rankings despite a strong individual tournament?

Vinicius Junior fell mainly because Brazil were eliminated in the Round of 16, which limited his chance to add more high-impact performances while rivals still in the tournament kept improving their cases. The Athletic’s ranking is driven by an objective player-ratings model and is updated as the competition progresses. That means players from eliminated teams can remain on the list, but they are vulnerable to being overtaken by players who deliver in knockout matches. Vinicius was reported to have had a strong tournament individually, including goals against Haiti and Morocco and a good personal display even in the loss to Norway, but Brazil’s 2-1 exit reduced the weight of his campaign compared with players still active. The context of Brazil’s defeat also mattered. Norway knocked Brazil out after a match in which Brazil were heavily out-possessed and Bruno Guimaraes missed a penalty. Erling Haaland’s standout display for Norway became one of the defining performances of the round, helping push other players upward while Brazil’s leading names lost momentum. So his drop was not presented as a verdict on poor form. It was more a consequence of tournament context: strong individual work, but no further matches, no quarter-final platform, and a team exit that allowed others to leapfrog him.

Q: Can one quarter-final finally push Kylian Mbappé past Lionel Messi for the number one spot?

Yes — one quarter-final could be enough, but only if Mbappé clearly outperforms Messi in that round. The Athletic’s ranking is not a pure goals table; it is driven by an objective player-ratings model and recent match impact. Right now Messi remains No. 1 because he just delivered the tournament’s standout knockout performance, dragging Argentina past Egypt with two goals and key creative work. Mbappé stayed No. 2 after a quieter display against Paraguay, even though he scored the winning penalty. That means the path is straightforward. If Mbappé produces a dominant quarter-final against Morocco — for example, a goal or two plus a strong all-around display — while Messi is merely average or quiet against Switzerland, the gap could close enough for Mbappé to move ahead. The Athletic itself framed it that way, saying Mbappé is essentially one sub-par Messi performance away from the top. There is also a scoring-race angle. Mbappé is right on Messi’s heels in the 2026 Golden Boot race, and depending on the exact tally used, a quarter-final goal could either draw him level or move him ahead on goals or assists. That would strengthen his case, though it would not automatically decide the ranking on its own. So the answer is yes, but not by default. Mbappé likely needs a statement performance against Morocco and some drop-off from Messi, because Messi’s Round of 16 display set a very high bar.

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jul 9

Lionel Messi held No. 1 in The Athletic’s updated top-50 World Cup player rankings after the round of 16, staying ahead of Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane.
Two late assists against Egypt preserved Messi’s lead despite a second missed penalty, while Mbappe remained close after France beat Paraguay and Kane climbed one spot after driving England past Mexico.
Big movers included Jude Bellingham up eight places to No. 7, Pau Cubarsi up nine to No. 10 and Anthony Gordon up 17 to No. 29; Erling Haaland rose to No. 4 after Norway eliminated Brazil.
Spain placed six players in the top 32, led by Aymeric Laporte at No. 9, reflecting a defence that has yet to concede in five matches as the tournament heads into the quarter-finals.