France Lead 2026 World Cup at 27.3% as Opta Cuts Spain to 21.3%
Updated
Updated · The Analyst · Jul 8
France Lead 2026 World Cup at 27.3% as Opta Cuts Spain to 21.3%
3 articles · Updated · The Analyst · Jul 8
Summary
Opta’s updated 25,000-simulation model made France the new World Cup favorite after the quarter-final field was set, giving Les Bleus a 27.3% title chance and a 44.3% probability of reaching the final.
Spain, the pre-tournament favorite, slipped to second at 21.3% despite still not conceding a goal; a likely semi-final meeting with France if they beat Belgium appears to weigh on their path.
Argentina rank third at 17.3% after surviving scares against Cape Verde and Egypt, while England are fourth at 16.5% despite knockout wins over Croatia and Mexico.
The remaining outsiders are led by Norway at 6.6%, with Switzerland at 3.8%, Morocco at 3.7% and Belgium lowest at 3.6%, underscoring how strongly the model favors the four traditional powers.