Updated
Updated · Econbrowser · Jul 6
US Recession Risk Dashboard Refreshes Monthly With ISM PMI, Tracking Current Downturn Odds
Updated
Updated · Econbrowser · Jul 6

US Recession Risk Dashboard Refreshes Monthly With ISM PMI, Tracking Current Downturn Odds

3 articles · Updated · Econbrowser · Jul 6

Summary

  • Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone’s US recession-risk dashboard offers a continuously updated read on whether the economy is already in recession, rather than forecasting the next 12 months.
  • The tool refreshes automatically on the first business day of each month when the ISM PMI is released, giving users a near-real-time pulse tied to a closely watched manufacturing indicator.
  • Recessionrisk.com was accessed on July 6, 2026, underscoring the dashboard’s role as a live monitoring tool for current US economic conditions.

Insights

As a once-reliable recession predictor fails, how can we now spot an economic downturn?
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