Atlanta Fed Halves Q2 2026 GDPNow Estimate to 1.2% as Trade and Investment Weaken

3 articles · Updated · investinglive.com · Jul 1

The Atlanta Fed cut its Q2 2026 GDPNow estimate to 1.2% on July 1 from 2.5% on June 25, sharply lowering its real-time view of U.S. growth.
Recent Census Bureau and ISM data drove the downgrade, pushing the nowcast for real gross private domestic investment growth down to 6.5% from 8.5%.
Net exports also worsened in the model, with their contribution to Q2 real GDP growth falling to -1.62 percentage points from -0.59 points.
The next GDPNow update is due July 7, while NEC Director Kevin Hassett said earlier Wednesday he still expects roughly 4% growth in the second half on hopes the war ends.

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