U.S. Q2 GDP Forecast Cut as 14.7% Import Surge Erodes Growth
Updated
Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Jun 30
U.S. Q2 GDP Forecast Cut as 14.7% Import Surge Erodes Growth
2 articles · Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Jun 30
Summary
Analysts now see a strong U.S. second-quarter GDP report as unlikely, with final sales expected to rise 1.1% after a downgrade that more than offsets Q1’s upward GDP revision to 2.1%.
Net exports are expected to subtract 2.0 percentage points from Q2 growth as imports jump 14.7% and exports edge up 0.9%, with the Supreme Court ruling against many Trump tariffs seen lifting imports.
Inventories are forecast to shave another 0.2 point from GDP, partly because Middle East-related supply disruptions worsen the drawdown, even as domestic demand stays relatively firm.
Consumer spending is still projected to increase 2.0% despite a 2.3% drop in real disposable income and 5.3% PCE inflation, while business investment rises 7.7% on AI demand and housing investment turns positive for the first time since Q1 2024.
The shifting quarterly mix leaves 2026 looking subdued overall, with strength concentrated in business investment rather than broad-based growth.