St. Cloud Shows Recession Signs as 25% of Businesses Report a Downturn

2 articles · Updated · WJON News · Jul 1

St. Cloud may already be in a local recession, economist King Banaian said, even as national indicators still point to a healthier U.S. economy.
Twenty-five percent of businesses in Banaian’s latest survey said activity is down, and 15% to 20% expect declines over the next six months, a sign he called unusually weak for typically optimistic business leaders.
Pullbacks in business investment are a key warning signal, while any layoffs may be limited because many firms already shrank hiring needs through automation and unfilled positions over the past 2 to 3 years.
Housing in the area shows no major stress, Banaian said, with prices stabilizing somewhat, while interest rates are not expected to change soon and could still rise if inflation needs cooling.
Gas prices have been falling, but Banaian said further declines likely depend on the Iran conflict ending, with a holiday weekend potentially causing a short-term bump.