National Bank of Greece Warns $100 Oil Could Cut Tourism Demand 5.5 Points
Updated
Updated · tovima.com · Jul 2
National Bank of Greece Warns $100 Oil Could Cut Tourism Demand 5.5 Points
3 articles · Updated · tovima.com · Jul 2
Summary
$100-a-barrel oil in a prolonged air-travel disruption could widen the hit to Greek tourism demand to 5.5 percentage points next season, versus nearly 2 points if oil holds near $80, the bank said.
April’s shock briefly sent oil to $120 and doubled jet-fuel prices, but airlines’ hedging and the short duration prevented deeper damage; the study says a longer crisis would have looked far worse.
Hotels still expected 2026 sales to rise about 3% after 4.5% growth in 2025, and May-August flights at Greek airports are running 3.6% higher versus roughly 1.6% across Europe.
Greece weathered the turmoil partly because about 90% of foreign overnight stays come from Europe, but 80% of hotels still reported cost pressure and nearly half saw demand and investment effects.
The bank said Greece should build a crisis framework to protect air connectivity in advance, arguing the tourism sector’s upmarket shift remains hostage to a link the country controls least.