Banks See Hormuz Oil Flows Recovering Over Months as Brent Falls to $77
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 18
Banks See Hormuz Oil Flows Recovering Over Months as Brent Falls to $77
3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 18
Summary
$77.16 Brent prices reflect easing supply fears after the U.S.-Iran interim peace deal, but banks say Strait of Hormuz oil flows and production will still take months to normalize.
Goldman Sachs expects Gulf exports to return to pre-war levels by end-July and crude production by October, saying shipowners' risk aversion could restrain shipments even if vessel supply is adequate.
BNP Paribas said even a best-case recovery would take several months and require producers to restore about 12 million barrels per day of shut-in output.
Bank of America added mine-clearing could take months because of logistical hurdles, leaving oil markets in deficit until the fourth quarter of 2026.
The strait carries about one-fifth of global oil supply; disruptions during the Iran conflict helped drive Brent as high as $126 a barrel in April.
With billions in damages and deep mistrust, can a 60-day truce truly stabilize global oil markets?
Will Iran's 'Tehran Toll Booth' become a dangerous new standard for the world's most critical shipping lanes?
Oil Prices and Supply Chains in Flux: The Aftermath of the 2026 US-Iran Peace Agreement
Overview
The interim peace deal between the United States and Iran in June 2026 has brought a cautious optimism to the global energy market, immediately shifting the landscape. By ending military operations in Lebanon, the agreement aims to restore regional stability and ensure safer oil transit. If the ceasefire holds and is not disrupted by further hostilities, experts expect a quicker return to normal oil flows, especially as Asian buyers and Middle Eastern producers are eager to resume trade. However, practical challenges remain, with unclear guidelines for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz making ship owners hesitant and slowing the full recovery of oil transit.