NYT/Siena Poll Revamps Weighting After Missing Trump by Nearly 3 Points in 2024

1 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jun 29

The next New York Times/Siena poll will adopt its biggest methodological overhaul in a decade, changing how responses are weighted to better represent the electorate.
Weighting became the focus after many polls again underestimated Donald Trump in 2024; Times/Siena says its own miss of nearly 3 points would have been cut almost in half under the new approach.
The changes are aimed at correcting demographic imbalances such as undercounting voters without college degrees, a problem pollsters see even in high-quality surveys.
Tests on earlier elections showed only modest gains, not a cure-all: the revised method would still have overstated Joe Biden's 2020 margin by a wide margin.
The move reflects a broader polling challenge after even prominent surveys, including Iowa's Selzer poll and the American National Election Study, badly missed Trump's support.