Updated

Updated · The New York Times · Jun 29

Platner Leads Collins 49-47 in Maine Senate Poll as Incumbent’s Ratings Stay Underwater

Updated

Updated · The New York Times · Jun 29

Platner Leads Collins 49-47 in Maine Senate Poll as Incumbent’s Ratings Stay Underwater

Q: How will ranked-choice voting impact a Senate race separated by such a narrow margin?

Ranked-choice voting could matter only if other candidates on Maine’s U.S. Senate ballot keep either major candidate below 50 percent. Maine uses ranked-choice voting for federal elections, including Senate races, so if no one wins an outright majority of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots are reassigned based on next choices until someone clears 50 percent. In a race polling at 49 percent for Graham Platner and 47 percent for Susan Collins, the practical effect may be limited if one of them reaches a majority on the first count. But with such a narrow gap, even a small share for independents or minor-party candidates could trigger additional rounds and decide the winner through transferred votes. That makes second-choice support unusually important. Collins’s ability to win over some voters who prefer Democratic Senate control suggests she may have crossover appeal that could help in later rounds. Platner, meanwhile, benefits from strong support among core Democratic and younger voters, but questions about his past could affect whether voters who back other candidates are willing to rank him next. The broader effect is that ranked-choice voting reduces the risk of a spoiler outcome and ensures the winner has majority backing among ballots still in play. It can also delay a final call in a very close race, because officials may need to complete multiple tabulation rounds before a winner is clear.

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jun 29

A New York Times/Siena poll puts Democrat Graham Platner ahead of Republican Senator Susan Collins 49% to 47% among likely Maine voters, underscoring a highly competitive re-election race.
48% of voters view Collins favorably while 50% view her unfavorably, suggesting the five-term incumbent remains viable in a Democratic-leaning state but no longer looks politically dominant.
54% say Collins would support President Trump too much, her clearest liability even as majorities give her relatively solid marks on character, effectiveness and ideological moderation.
Platner, a 41-year-old oyster farmer in his first campaign, appears damaged but not sunk by controversies including a covered Nazi-symbol tattoo and texts to other women while married.
The June 19-26 survey of 608 likely voters, conducted with the Portland Press Herald, had a 4.8-point margin of error, leaving the race effectively within statistical reach.