Updated
Updated · Semafor · Jun 24
Voters Back Federal Oversight of Prediction Markets, With 48% of Republicans Favoring It
Updated
Updated · Semafor · Jun 24

Voters Back Federal Oversight of Prediction Markets, With 48% of Republicans Favoring It

3 articles · Updated · Semafor · Jun 24

Summary

  • 48% of Republicans and 45% of Democrats prefer federal oversight of prediction markets, outpacing support for state oversight at 27% and 35%, according to industry-commissioned polls shared with Semafor.
  • 67% of voters said adults should decide for themselves whether to use prediction markets, while only 8% backed an outright ban; among voters under 35, 52% said they have used them.
  • The findings land as CFTC Chair Mike Selig clashes with states and tribes seeking to ban prediction markets or regulate them as gambling.
  • Other recent polling has shown a murkier picture: Politico found voters split on whether prediction markets are good or bad, and a Morning Consult survey for the gaming industry found 81% view sports-event prediction markets as gambling.

Insights

As federal regulators and states clash, who will ultimately control the booming prediction market industry?
Prediction markets are surging, but can they be made safe for users without being regulated out of existence?
Is betting on events a financial tool for the future or just old-fashioned gambling in a new disguise?