Danny Moses Uses 60%-Odds Kalshi Bets to Shape Trades, Sees Hedge Funds Adopting Event Contracts
Updated
Updated · Business Insider · Jun 7
Danny Moses Uses 60%-Odds Kalshi Bets to Shape Trades, Sees Hedge Funds Adopting Event Contracts
1 articles · Updated · Business Insider · Jun 7
Summary
Danny Moses said he now uses Kalshi and Polymarket to inform investment views, treating prediction markets as both sentiment gauges and standalone trading venues.
On Substack, the "Big Short" trader argued event contracts can surface signals before traditional channels, citing a Kalshi market on a possible SpaceX-Tesla merger that he tracked alongside moves in Tesla stock.
Moses also places bets when he sees mispricing: after Anthropic's IPO filing, he bought "yes" contracts on trading starting before Oct. 1 and Sept. 1 after Kalshi showed better than 60% odds for the earlier date.
He said he watches finance, commodities, economics and sports most closely, using contracts to add conviction to existing positions or spark new company research.
The broader case for prediction markets is gaining support: a February Federal Reserve study said Kalshi could measure macro expectations, and Moses expects hedge funds to eventually use event contracts to express views or hedge exposure.