DRW, Wintermute and IMC Build Desks for $40 Billion Prediction Markets

2 articles · Updated · CoinDesk · Jun 6

DRW, Wintermute and IMC are hiring traders and building dedicated desks to trade Polymarket and Kalshi, signaling that prediction markets are being treated as a serious venue rather than a niche betting product.
Polymarket processed an estimated $22 billion to $40 billion in 2025, and firms are targeting short-term pricing gaps across venues with cross-platform arbitrage, microstructure trading and news-driven strategies instead of betting on event outcomes.
A May 14 U.K. prime minister market showed the opportunity: Andy Burnham contracts traded at 24 cents on Polymarket while Betfair implied about 50 cents, a gap that took hours to close.
That trade requires moving capital across crypto, fiat and multiple exchanges, a complexity that favors large firms as liquidity stays fragmented across Polymarket, Kalshi and traditional sportsbooks.
Veteran sports betting groups still appear to set the sharpest prices, but new infrastructure is accelerating the institutional push, with HyperLiquid preparing prediction markets ahead of the 2026 World Cup.

Sources

CoinDesk16h ago

Quantitative Trading Firms DRW, Wintermute, IMC Target Prediction Markets for Inefficiency Exploitation

whalesbook.com3h ago

Wall Street Quant Firms Pivot to Event-Driven Arbitrage | Whalesbook

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With federal regulators and states at odds, who will ultimately decide the future legality of prediction markets in America?

Prediction Markets Surpass $20B Monthly Volume as Institutions Transform Event Risk Trading

Overview

In 2026, prediction markets are transforming from niche online platforms into a major asset class, driven by a surge of institutional capital and active participation from leading quantitative trading firms. This shift is fueled by the unique ability of prediction markets to offer direct exposure to event risk, which was previously hard to trade. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are seeing billions in monthly trading volume, while new entrants like HyperLiquid are preparing for large-scale events such as the World Cup. As institutions reshape how uncertainties are managed and traded, prediction markets are becoming central to modern financial strategies.

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