U.S. Election Betting Boom Strains Insider Trading Controls Across 6,590 Races
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 8
U.S. Election Betting Boom Strains Insider Trading Controls Across 6,590 Races
3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 8
Summary
$24 billion in April trading on Kalshi and Polymarket is setting up a major test of election-betting oversight as experts warn regulators and platforms may struggle to police insider trading in the 2026 midterms.
6,590 state and federal legislative seats are up this year, and contracts are becoming more granular—covering turnout, margins and dropouts—expanding the pool of campaign insiders and the value of nonpublic information.
Kalshi has already suspended three congressional candidates for betting on their own races, while regulators are investigating whether former congressman George Santos traded on inside information.
Nearly 100 Polymarket wallets have been referred to law enforcement, and both major platforms say they use surveillance, KYC and trading bans for politicians or staff to curb abuse.
105 CFTC enforcement positions—the lowest in at least 20 years, according to budget data—have fueled doubts that the agency can investigate a wave of referrals even as election betting spreads to more platforms.