32 U.S. States Restrict Election Betting as 16 Move to Regulate Prediction Markets
Updated
Updated · Pew Research Center · Jun 23
32 U.S. States Restrict Election Betting as 16 Move to Regulate Prediction Markets
1 articles · Updated · Pew Research Center · Jun 23
Summary
Pew found 32 states restrict election betting in some form, including 23 that ban it outright, while 18 states and Washington, D.C., have no explicit election-betting law.
The review comes as trading volume has surged on Kalshi and Polymarket, platforms federal regulators argue offer financial event contracts rather than gambling subject to state bans.
16 states have introduced prediction-market bills this year, with Minnesota enacting the first statewide ban on Kalshi and Polymarket in May and Kentucky and Tennessee also passing related laws.
State rules vary widely: some punish only bookmakers or candidates, some make violations felonies, and Delaware, New York and Wisconsin attach voting-related penalties.
The patchwork is now colliding with federal oversight, with the CFTC suing several states and separately seeking to block Minnesota's new ban.
As states outlaw election betting, can federal regulators successfully rebrand it as a financial market?
Will prediction markets create more informed citizens or turn civic duty into a high-stakes gamble?
Prediction Markets Under Fire: Minnesota’s Ban, 38 States in Opposition, and the Looming Supreme Court Clash
Overview
Minnesota’s recent ban on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket has sparked a major federal legal battle, putting the state at the center of a national debate over who should regulate these platforms. The industry strongly opposes the ban, arguing it violates federal law and harms users by reducing competition and pushing activity offshore. This conflict highlights a broader struggle between state and federal authorities, as similar bans and lawsuits are happening across the country. The outcome will shape whether prediction markets are treated as financial tools under federal oversight or as gambling under state control, affecting the industry’s future and consumer protections.