Kalshi, Polymarket Push Prediction Volume to $24 Billion as Valuations Climb to $22 Billion
Updated
Updated · Morning Brew · Jun 21
Kalshi, Polymarket Push Prediction Volume to $24 Billion as Valuations Climb to $22 Billion
2 articles · Updated · Morning Brew · Jun 21
Summary
$24 billion in combined global trading volume by April 2026 marked a sharp jump for Kalshi and Polymarket from $4.5 billion in September 2025, underscoring how fast prediction-market betting has expanded.
Kalshi dominates the U.S. market with more than 90% share and annualized revenue above $1.5 billion, while investor demand lifted its valuation from $11 billion in December to $22 billion about six months later.
Polymarket has seen a similar repricing: after a reported $350 million valuation in 2024, it was recently in talks to raise funds at a $15 billion valuation.
User gains remain highly concentrated despite the boom, with 67% of Polymarket profits going to 0.1% of accounts; the average user lost $1 to $100, and Kalshi says it has 2.9 losing users for every profitable one.
Bernstein forecasts prediction-market trading volume could reach $1 trillion a year by 2030, with sports, crypto and politics currently driving the strongest activity.
Are prediction markets the future of finance or just a sophisticated, unregulated casino for the digital age?
With AI now trading real money, will 'truth machines' finally outsmart human insiders and manipulators?
Prediction Markets’ 1,000% Surge: Institutionalization, Regulation, and the Future of Retail Traders
Overview
Prediction markets have rapidly surged in activity and prominence, fueled by increased regulatory clarity, expanded product offerings, and growing institutional adoption. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have seen dramatic growth in trading volumes since mid-2025, offering users the ability to trade contracts on real-world events such as elections, weather, sports, and entertainment. While their valuations moved together for much of the past year, a recent divergence hints at shifting market dynamics. This explosive ascent highlights how regulatory support and broader product choices are attracting both retail and institutional participants, shaping the future of prediction markets.