JPMorgan Warns Global Rates Will Spike by End-2026 as $100 Trillion Public Debt Swells
Updated
Updated · Fortune · Jul 24
JPMorgan Warns Global Rates Will Spike by End-2026 as $100 Trillion Public Debt Swells
2 articles · Updated · Fortune · Jul 24
Summary
End-2026 borrowing costs are set to rise globally, JPMorgan said, flagging deficits and de-population as the two biggest forces pushing interest rates higher.
JPMorgan said global public debt has reached $100 trillion and fiscal discipline is breaking down, with governments still leaning on stimulus during the Iran crisis and showing few signs of rebuilding fiscal space.
In the U.S., the bank said a larger debt stock, higher rates and little political appetite for fiscal consolidation are lifting long-term bond term premiums, even as America retains more fiscal space than most countries.
Aging populations and falling birth rates are adding pressure by shrinking labor forces while raising pension, healthcare, defense and infrastructure costs, which JPMorgan said will cut savings and add to debt burdens beyond 2031.
The bank said the 40-year demographic dividend is ending, making de-population an underappreciated driver of higher global interest rates alongside persistent fiscal deficits.