Central Bank Seen Holding Rates at 14.25% as Fuel Shock Drives Inflation to 10.6%
Updated
Updated · The Bell · Jul 22
Central Bank Seen Holding Rates at 14.25% as Fuel Shock Drives Inflation to 10.6%
3 articles · Updated · The Bell · Jul 22
Summary
July 24’s rate meeting is now expected to deliver a pause rather than another cut, as June’s seasonally adjusted annual inflation jumped to 10.6% from 2%.
Fuel shortages triggered the spike, but the bank’s own analysts said higher gasoline and diesel costs are already feeding through to a growing range of final prices.
80 of Russia’s 89 regions have reported fuel-sale restrictions or gas-station queues, raising the risk that households and businesses will push inflation expectations higher.
Analysts surveyed by the bank lifted their 2026 inflation forecast to 6.2% from 5.3% and their average 2026 key-rate view to 14.5% from 14.1%.
The bank is also expected to cut growth forecasts after its business climate indicator fell to -3.6 from 0.9, underscoring how the fuel crisis has disrupted earlier disinflation progress.