3 in 5 Americans Overstate Gas Price Hikes, Threatening GOP in 2026 Midterms

1 articles · Updated · POLITICO · Jul 24

Three in five Americans think local gas prices rose more than they actually did, a POLITICO analysis found, creating a fresh political risk for Republicans heading into the fall midterms.
OPIS zip-code data showed no area had averaged a $3-per-gallon increase since Trump took office, yet about 1 in 4 respondents said prices had jumped by $3 or more.
That perception appears electorally potent: 46% said gas prices will affect their vote, and nearly 40% of that group are considering backing a different party than usual.
The gap cuts across party lines—70% of Harris voters and 54% of Trump voters overestimated increases—while self-identified MAGA Republicans were more likely than non-MAGA Republicans to underestimate them.
Competitive House races may feel the pressure most acutely: 13 top battleground districts saw above-average gas-price increases, and 9 of them are currently held by Republicans.