StoneX Sees 4.6% Treasury Yield Pressuring Gold and Silver as Fed Split Clouds July Decision
Updated
Updated · Kitco NEWS · Jul 20
StoneX Sees 4.6% Treasury Yield Pressuring Gold and Silver as Fed Split Clouds July Decision
3 articles · Updated · Kitco NEWS · Jul 20
Summary
StoneX said gold and silver still face downside risk, with Rhona O'Connell arguing narrow trading ranges persist and sustained rallies remain less likely than further weakness.
A 10-year Treasury yield rise to 4.6% from below 4% at end-February is the clearest headwind, she said, as the Fed heads into its July 28-29 meeting with officials divided roughly 50-50 on more tightening.
June CPI was pulled lower mainly by energy, which fell nearly 6% in the month and accounted for almost all of the 0.4% drop in headline inflation, but O'Connell expects that relief to reverse in July.
Investor positioning still looks soft: managed-money gold longs rose 1.5% to 436 tonnes but remain 23% below their 12-month average, while silver longs fell 9% to 2,822 tonnes, 41% below average.
ETF flows echo that caution, with gold funds down 108 tonnes from their mid-April peak and silver ETFs off 2,408 tonnes year to date, even as some bargain hunting emerged late last week.