Updated

Updated · Kitco NEWS · Jul 20

India's Silver Premiums Jump Above 10% as Import Curbs Slash June Inflows to 1.0 Moz

Updated

Updated · Kitco NEWS · Jul 20

India's Silver Premiums Jump Above 10% as Import Curbs Slash June Inflows to 1.0 Moz

Q: With geopolitical risk rising, why is a hawkish Fed winning the tug-of-war for gold's price?

A hawkish Federal Reserve is outweighing geopolitical support for gold because the conflict is reinforcing inflation and rate-hike expectations rather than creating a pure safe-haven bid. Gold usually benefits from war risk, but this time the US-Iran conflict has lifted oil by about $10 a barrel and revived fears of energy-driven inflation. Even though June CPI slowed to 3.5% from 4.2%, inflation is still well above the Fed’s 2% target. That keeps markets focused on the risk of more tightening after the Fed’s June 17 meeting, which was read as hawkish. That matters because gold yields nothing. When investors expect higher policy rates, Treasury yields rise and the opportunity cost of holding gold increases. At the same time, a hawkish Fed tends to support the US dollar, and a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for non-US buyers. Analysts continue to point to this combination of firmer yields and a stronger dollar as the main cap on gold. In effect, the geopolitical shock is not translating cleanly into gold demand because it is feeding the very macro forces that hurt gold most: higher real rates and a stronger dollar. That is why gold has stayed stuck in roughly a $3,950-$4,200 range and was last near $4,009.76, despite elevated regional tensions. The market is treating gold less as a crisis trade and more as a rates trade. Until inflation falls closer to target or the Fed clearly turns less hawkish, safe-haven demand alone is unlikely to break gold decisively higher.

2 articles · Updated · Kitco NEWS · Jul 20

$6.50 an ounce premiums in India now sit more than 10% above benchmark silver prices, reversing from discounts of as much as $5.50 in May as domestic supply tightened.
1.0 million ounces of silver entered India in June, down 84% from a year earlier, after mid-May curbs and duty hikes from 6% to 15% were expanded to cover silver grain and powder.
Heraeus said the shortage emerged despite weak demand, with India still a critical market after importing 210 million ounces in 2025—about 18% of global silver demand.
Gold, by contrast, stayed trapped between $3,950 and $4,200 as easing inflation data and lower rate-hike expectations were offset by renewed US-Iran conflict and oil-market worries.

Sources

Kitco NEWS1d ago

India's Silver Premiums Surge Over 10% Amid Import Restrictions

whalesbook.com16h ago

UK Carmakers Can Apply for Lower India Import Duties Until Aug 4 | Whalesbook

How will India’s silver shortage impact the global push for green energy and AI infrastructure?

Could the global silver deficit force tech industries to find a viable alternative for the indispensable metal?

With geopolitical risk rising, why is a hawkish Fed winning the tug-of-war for gold's price?

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2 total

Kitco NEWS1d ago

India's Silver Premiums Surge Over 10% Amid Import Restrictions

whalesbook.com16h ago

UK Carmakers Can Apply for Lower India Import Duties Until Aug 4 | Whalesbook

India's Silver Premiums Jump Above 10% as Import Curbs Slash June Inflows to 1.0 Moz

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