Boston entered Sunday with a 66.9% playoff chance after going 17-2 since June 25, outscoring opponents 100-53 following a 32-46 start.
A June 25 managerial switch from Alex Cora to interim Chad Tracy helped align the clubhouse with Craig Breslow’s pitching-and-defense blueprint, which took hold during a four-game Yankees sweep and 9-0 road trip.
Pitching and defense have driven the surge: Boston posted a 2.55 ERA over the 19-game run, throws strikes at one of MLB’s highest rates and ranks as the AL’s best defense by outs above average.
The offense also added needed power, with home runs rising from 0.86 per game in the first 78 games to 1.37 in the next 19, while the bullpen went 6-0 in July with a 1.65 ERA.
The turnaround is historically rare: none of the previous 473 teams that were at least 32-46 through 78 games went on to make the playoffs.