Rays Backed to Snap Red Sox's 11-Game Streak as Tampa Bay Holds AL East Lead at 56-40

Q: Will the Red Sox's historic 11-game winning streak finally shatter against their division-leading rivals?

It may, but there is no confirmed result yet. Based on the available reporting, the safer read is that Boston’s 11-game streak is under real pressure against Tampa Bay, even after the Red Sox just swept a doubleheader from the Rays to reach that mark. The case for the Rays is strong. Tampa Bay is 56-40 and leads the division, with one of the majors’ best starting-pitching profiles. Ian Seymour has been more effective than his overall ERA suggests, and Boston hitters are reportedly hitless in 18 career at-bats against him. Analysts also lean Tampa Bay because of its stronger full-season body of work and home-field setting. Boston, though, is not arriving as an easy fade. The Red Sox have won 11 straight, climbed back to .500, and just beat these same Rays twice on Friday, including a 10-0 win and a 5-3 victory. Their bullpen was especially sharp in that twin bill, and the club’s momentum is undeniable. The biggest uncertainty is Patrick Sandoval. He is making only his second start of the season after a long recovery, so Boston may need significant bullpen coverage again. That creates risk against a Rays lineup led by Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero. So the streak is very much in danger, and pregame analysis slightly favors Tampa Bay. But given Boston’s current form and its success against the Rays one day earlier, calling the streak’s end a certainty would go too far.

Q: Can a pitcher with a perfect record against Boston hitters stop the league's hottest team?

Yes, but only if Ian Seymour’s limited edge over Boston holds up against a lineup playing its best baseball of the season. The case for Tampa Bay starts with Seymour’s history against current Red Sox hitters: Boston is hitless in 18 at-bats against him, and he also held them mostly in check earlier this week aside from a leadoff homer by Marcelo Mayer. His pitch mix gives him a chance. The changeup and sweeper have been his best weapons, and Tampa Bay’s rotation has been the club’s biggest strength all year, posting the majors’ best collective starter ERA. The case against that is Boston’s form. The Red Sox have won 11 straight, including a doubleheader sweep of the Rays on Friday, and have gone 16-2 over their last 18 games. Their pitching has surged, their bullpen has been sharp, and timely power from hitters such as Wilyer Abreu has changed the feel of their season. Seymour is also not a dominant, proven starter over long outings. He has been more effective in relief, carries a mid-4.00s ERA overall, and has shown some home-run vulnerability because of a rising fly-ball rate. If Boston forces him deeper into counts and gets into Tampa Bay’s weaker bullpen, the matchup shifts. So the answer is that Seymour can slow Boston down, but “stop” them is a bigger ask. His past success against these hitters is real, yet Boston’s current momentum makes this far from a safe bet.

3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Jul 18

Tampa Bay is the pick on the moneyline to stop Boston's 11-game winning streak, with the preview favoring the AL East-leading Rays over a Red Sox club that just climbed back to .500.
Ian Seymour's split drives that edge: in 33 appearances and six starts, opponents have hit .242 off him as a starter, but Boston is 0-for-18 with seven strikeouts against him.
Patrick Sandoval makes only his second start for Boston with a 2.08 ERA over 4.1 innings, and the preview suggests the Red Sox may need length from him after a doubleheader.
A total of 9.5 also leans over because neither starter is expected to dominate, though the stronger recommendation is Tampa Bay against a Boston team coming off two wins Thursday.