El Niño Drives 2nd-Highest July Wind Shear Since 1979, Suppressing Atlantic Hurricanes
Updated
Updated · CNN · Jul 18
El Niño Drives 2nd-Highest July Wind Shear Since 1979, Suppressing Atlantic Hurricanes
3 articles · Updated · CNN · Jul 18
Summary
Atlantic hurricane activity has produced just one short-lived named storm so far, marking the quietest start to the season since 2009.
NOAA data show Caribbean wind shear had its second-highest start to July since 1979, with experts increasingly tying that storm-killing pattern to El Niño declared in June.
That shear has gripped the Caribbean and western Atlantic—key breeding grounds for tropical systems—and historically points to a weaker peak season from mid-August to mid-October.
Forecasters including Colorado State University have already cut storm-number projections further as confidence grows in a possible Super El Niño later this year.
Risk has not vanished: warm Gulf waters could still fuel storms that avoid the shear, and models are watching possible development in the eastern Gulf next week.
As El Niño quiets the Atlantic, could the Gulf of Mexico become a 'rocket fuel' incubator for a surprise superstorm?
Will record-warm oceans override El Niño's calming effect, creating a surprisingly dangerous hurricane season?
"Super El Niño Suppresses 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Outlook, Risks, and the Need for Vigilance"
Overview
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season began quietly, mainly because a 'Super El Niño' event was officially declared and quickly strengthened. El Niño is a natural climate pattern where warmer-than-average water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean causes changes in upper atmosphere weather patterns. These changes influence global weather and typically create conditions that suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic. As this very strong El Niño emerged during the northern summer, it led to increased wind shear, making it harder for hurricanes to form. This explains the unusually calm start to the season and highlights the powerful impact of El Niño on hurricane activity.