Polymarket Cuts Clarity Act Passage Odds to 32% as Senate Ethics Dispute Stalls Support
Updated
Updated · CoinDesk · Jul 17
Polymarket Cuts Clarity Act Passage Odds to 32% as Senate Ethics Dispute Stalls Support
2 articles · Updated · CoinDesk · Jul 17
Summary
Polymarket traders now give the Clarity Act a 32% chance of passing by Dec. 31, 2026, the lowest since the market launched in January and down from an 82% peak in February.
Senate talks remain stuck on winning Democratic votes, with a bipartisan ethics provision the main obstacle; Sen. Ruben Gallego has said he will not back the bill on the floor without it.
Thursday's White House meeting with Senate Republicans produced no public readout, and no bipartisan ethics language had surfaced by Friday, leaving one of the bill's biggest hurdles unresolved.
Crypto executives used a House hearing Friday to press for the measure, saying clearer SEC-CFTC boundaries would curb regulation-by-enforcement, keep firms in the U.S. and create rules that outlast administrations.
With Congress nearing its August recess and few legislative weeks left afterward, traders are increasingly doubtful the market-structure bill can reach the president's desk this year.