Scottie Scheffler Sinks 6-Foot Birdie Put at Open, Then Flirts With Creek on 6

Q: Is a lucky break on one hole the true difference between winning and losing a major championship?

No. A lucky break on one hole can matter, but it is rarely the true difference between winning and losing a major championship. Scottie Scheffler’s escape on Royal Birkdale’s 6th is a good example of how thin the margins are. If his tee shot rolls into the creek, he likely drops a shot or more; instead, the thick rough stopped it. That kind of bounce can preserve momentum and keep a round alive. On links-style courses in particular, firm turf, wind and uneven lies make fortune a real factor. But majors are decided over 72 holes, and the stronger evidence points to sustained execution. Scheffler’s birdie at the 5th came not from luck but from recovery and putting: an imperfect drive, an ordinary chip, then a made six-footer. More broadly, his record as world No. 1 reflects repeatable strengths—elite ball-striking, patience and consistency—not isolated breaks. Players themselves often describe both sides of this reality. Matt Fitzpatrick recently blamed missed-cut damage on bad links bounces, saying you sometimes need the “rub of the green.” Scheffler has also said the margins are “so small,” but that winning requires being “really, really sharp.” That is the key distinction: luck can influence a hole, even a round, yet majors are usually won by the player who handles those moments best and limits the damage when fortune turns. A single bounce can be pivotal. It is usually not the whole story.

Q: With rivals setting records, can Scottie Scheffler's resilience secure a back-to-back Open Championship victory?

Yes—Scheffler’s resilience has kept him in the hunt, but a successful title defense will likely depend on whether his putter improves quickly enough to match the record pace around him. The evidence is strong on both sides. Scheffler, the world No. 1 and defending champion, has stayed within striking distance at Royal Birkdale despite not having his best week on the greens. He followed rounds of 68-68 to reach 4-under entering the weekend, and his “Moving Day” start showed the pattern of his week: a gritty birdie at the short 5th after less-than-ideal approach play, then a narrow escape at the brutally difficult 6th when thick rough kept his tee shot from rolling into the creek. That is the kind of damage control that keeps major campaigns alive. At the same time, the pressure is real. Lucas Herbert and Sam Burns both shot record-tying 62s, with Herbert leading at 8-under and others such as Cameron Young and Jackson Suber also ahead. Scheffler has been elite tee-to-green, but reports indicate he has been among the weakest putters in the field this week. At Birkdale, where precision and patience matter more than power, that ball-striking gives him a real chance; cold putting limits it. So the path is clear: if Scheffler putts even at an average level over the weekend, his consistency and composure make him a serious threat to go back-to-back. If the putter stays cold, the record-setting scoring from his rivals may be too much to overcome.

3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jul 18

Scheffler finally got under way on Moving Day with his first birdie, rolling in a 6-foot putt at the short par-4 fifth.
The chance came after his drive failed to reach the green and his chip left him more work than he wanted, but he still converted.
At the sixth—the course’s hardest hole—the defending champion immediately ran into danger, dragging his tee shot toward the creek on the left.
Thick rough kept the ball from taking one more hop into the hazard, leaving Scheffler with an escape instead of a penalty.