Scottie Scheffler Leads 2026 Open Odds at +550 Despite 4-Shot Deficit

Q: How will Royal Birkdale's criticized renovations decide the winner of the 154th Open Championship?

Royal Birkdale’s criticized renovations are likely to decide the Open by rewarding the player who controls misses best, not just the one who makes the most birdies. The key issue is the reshaped green complexes on holes such as 5, 7, 14, 15 and 16. Scottie Scheffler and Lee Westwood have said the altered holes look out of character, mainly because of the severe short-grass runoffs and deep collection areas. In practice, that means slightly missed approach shots will not just finish off the green; they can run well away into awkward lies, turning routine pars into difficult recoveries. That puts a premium on precise iron play, trajectory control in the wind and elite scrambling. Royal Birkdale is already playing firm and fast, with quick greens and Irish Sea gusts. On the renovated holes, especially the new 241-yard par-3 15th and the drivable par-4 5th, players must choose carefully between aggression and restraint. The winner will likely be the golfer who lands approaches in the correct sections and avoids short-siding himself around the raised, sloping greens. The changes also sharpen the mental test. The redesigned closing stretch increases the cost of a poor decision late in the round, particularly if conditions worsen. That is why oddsmakers still favor Scheffler despite Lucas Herbert’s four-shot lead: over 36 more holes, the course may favor the most complete player, with disciplined strategy and a reliable short game, over the hottest scorer through two rounds.

3 articles · Updated · USA TODAY · Jul 17

BetMGM made Scottie Scheffler the post-cut favorite at +550 even though the world No. 1 starts the weekend four strokes behind leader Lucas Herbert at Royal Birkdale.
Herbert surged to the top with a record 8-under 62 in Friday's second round, yet oddsmakers still priced him behind Scheffler at +1000 for the final 36 holes.
Bryson DeChambeau also sits at +1000 after a two-stroke penalty dropped him from second place and one back of Herbert into a tie for fifth.
Cameron Young is next at +650, followed by Tommy Fleetwood at +1200, with Jon Rahm and Sam Burns both at +1400 as the 154th Open heads into rounds three and four.