Gabriel Perez, Trump's longtime teleprompter operator, is discussing a civil settlement with the CFTC after allegedly making more than $100,000 betting on whether Trump would mention specific topics in speeches.
Kalshi's surveillance team flagged the trading and referred it to regulators, who believe Perez used advance access to prepared remarks and even adjusted positions when Trump went off script.
The White House put Perez on paid administrative leave, said he is cooperating, and confirmed he will not work Thursday night's address; Trump called the episode "deeply unfortunate" and "a disgrace."
Federal prosecutors in Manhattan were notified but declined criminal charges, leaving the case on a civil track that could force Perez to surrender profits and stop similar trading.
The case adds to early insider-trading scrutiny in prediction markets, where Kalshi now requires employer disclosure and bars bets based on confidential job information.