63% of respondents in ACG and GF Data’s Q3 Market Pulse Survey expect middle-market M&A activity to rise in the second half, slightly above Q2, while sentiment on financing stayed firm.
49% said the financing environment should remain favorable over the next six months, but respondents flagged political or geopolitical instability as the top risk and buyer-seller price gaps as the second.
17% cited an economic downturn or recession as a key threat, with some dealmakers warning a possible Federal Reserve rate hike could pressure companies to close deals sooner and still tip the economy toward recession.
Retail was again seen as the sector most likely to face weaker M&A activity, reflecting softer consumer demand and what one respondent called extreme buyer discipline.
The survey points to a 2026 middle-market rebound driven by fundamentals rather than speculation, with respondents describing a market far removed from the looser standards of 2021.