SportsLine's Matt Severance Locks 2026 MLB All-Star Picks on 118-66 Run

Q: With stars like Judge and Ohtani sidelined, did their replacements ultimately steal the show and decide the game?

Yes. With Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani out, the replacements and other fill-in stars were central to the American League’s 4-0 win and effectively decided the game. Judge’s replacement, Cody Bellinger, made the biggest early impact. He delivered a two-run single in the first inning as the AL jumped on National League starter Cristopher Sanchez. Ben Rice, filling in for injured AL first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., followed with an RBI single. Those two swings created a 3-0 lead immediately, which proved more than enough given how dominant the AL pitching was. Ohtani’s replacement, Kyle Schwarber, did not have a comparable offensive impact for the NL. Instead, the National League lineup was largely neutralized. AL starter Dylan Cease set the tone by striking out Schwarber, Juan Soto and CJ Abrams in a sharp opening inning, and the AL staff carried that dominance through the night in a combined shutout. Another replacement-level breakout came later from first-time All-Star Miguel Vargas, who added a 433-foot solo homer in the eighth to make it 4-0 and remove any remaining doubt. So while the game was not decided by Judge’s and Ohtani’s direct substitutes alone, the absences clearly shifted the spotlight. Bellinger and Rice, along with Vargas and the AL pitching staff, became the defining performers and were the main reason the American League controlled the game.

Q: After a three-run first inning, did the expert prediction for a low-scoring game prove disastrously wrong?

No. A three-run first inning did not make the Under prediction “disastrously wrong.” SportsLine’s Matt Severance had recommended the Under 8.5 runs, and despite the American League’s quick 3-0 lead against Cristopher Sánchez, the game did not turn into an offensive shootout. The additional reporting provided says the final score was 4-0, with the AL adding only one more run the rest of the night and the NL being shut out. That means the game finished with just four total runs, well below the 8.5-run total. In other words, the early burst looked bad for an Under bet in the moment, but the overall prediction held up because pitching dominated after the first inning. The broader context also supports why the Under was a reasonable call. Multiple previews noted that All-Star Games often suppress scoring because managers cycle through many elite pitchers for short, high-intensity outings. Historical trends cited in the coverage also leaned Under. So while the first inning was a poor start for anyone expecting a quiet opening, the low-scoring forecast was ultimately correct, not a disaster.

Q: Why did the favored NL team's ace pitcher collapse so spectacularly in the very first inning?

Cristopher Sánchez’s rough first inning appears to have been a case of command slipping at the worst possible moment, not a mystery injury or some broader collapse in form. The available game reporting shows Sánchez opened by striking out Mike Trout, then lost the zone enough to put multiple runners on and load the bases. The American League immediately punished those mistakes: Cody Bellinger lined a two-run single up the middle, and Ben Rice followed with an RBI single to make it 3-0. In an All-Star setting, where every baserunner is dangerous, that kind of traffic can unravel an inning very quickly. There is no evidence in the provided reporting of a physical issue causing it. In fact, Sánchez entered the game with elite credentials, including a 2.62 ERA, 144 strikeouts in 127 1/3 innings, and one of the best seasons in baseball. That suggests the inning was more about a brief loss of command and the AL lineup’s ability to capitalize immediately than any deeper problem. Context also matters. Sánchez had shown some recent vulnerability, with one analysis noting a 9.58 ERA in two July starts before the All-Star break. That does not explain the inning by itself, but it supports the idea that he was not entering in peak rhythm. Against an AL lineup stacked with hitters replacing injured stars like Aaron Judge and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., even a short lapse was enough to turn into a three-run inning.

3 articles · Updated · SportsLine · Jul 14

Matt Severance has finalized his 2026 MLB All-Star Game bets, backing the under on 8.5 runs and flagging one side as the value play, though the full money-line pick is paywalled.
FanDuel lists the National League as a -134 favorite over the American League at +116 for Tuesday's 8 p.m. ET first pitch at Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park.
Cristopher Sanchez is set to start at his home park for the NL, while Toronto's Dylan Cease gets the ball for the AL; Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge are both expected to sit out with injuries.
The matchup gives the NL a chance for consecutive All-Star Game wins for the first time since 2011-12 after last year's tie through nine innings was decided by a swing-off.
Severance's call leans on a strong recent record: he enters the break on a 118-66-1 MLB run and is up $1,681 over the past four seasons, according to SportsLine.