An irreversible AMOC collapse pathway carries about a 10% chance even if emissions stop immediately, and the new study says that risk could climb to 80% by 2100 under current emissions.
Greenland ice melt is driving the threat by pouring freshwater into the North Atlantic, weakening the cold, salty water formation that helps power the circulation.
A breakdown of the current could lift sea levels along the U.S. East Coast, sharply cool northern Europe and disrupt global weather with harsher droughts, floods and storms.
Scientists still differ on the timing, but they broadly agree AMOC is already weakening, and the study says cutting carbon emissions quickly remains the main way to limit the danger.
With Europe facing potential ice-age conditions, how would an AMOC collapse reshape global security and trigger mass migrations?
If predicting the Atlantic current's collapse is 'impossible,' how can nations prepare for such a catastrophic yet uncertain threat?
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Collapse: Probability, Consequences, and Policy Imperatives
Overview
Recent scientific assessments, such as Holden et al. (2026), highlight a growing urgency about the risk of an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse. These studies focus on quantifying both the probability and timing of such an event, which is essential for managing global climate risks. However, experts warn that current climate models may underestimate the danger because they often do not fully account for the impact of Greenland meltwater. As a result, the actual risk could be more severe than previously thought, making it crucial to improve models and provide clearer guidance for policy and adaptation strategies.