Study Puts 10% Odds on AMOC Collapse Already Being Locked In by 2025
Updated
Updated · Gizmodo · Jul 9
Study Puts 10% Odds on AMOC Collapse Already Being Locked In by 2025
2 articles · Updated · Gizmodo · Jul 9
Summary
A new preprint estimates the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has a greater than 10% chance of already being committed to collapse even if emissions peaked in 2025.
Hundreds of model runs tied that risk mainly to Greenland ice melt, warmer seas and heavier rainfall, which weaken the salinity and temperature gradients that keep the current system circulating.
Under worse assumptions, the study puts collapse odds at 23% in more severe melt scenarios and as high as 80% by 2100 under the worst emissions pathway, reaching 100% in some model cases.
Stefan Rahmstorf, an AMOC researcher not involved in the work, said the single-model study should be treated cautiously but called its conclusions plausible given the current's fragility.
An AMOC shutdown would sharply raise U.S. East Coast sea levels, cool northern Europe by 5 to 15C and disrupt rainfall and storms, though recent studies still disagree on whether abrupt collapse is imminent.
With scientific models in fierce disagreement, what evidence would finally confirm if the AMOC is truly heading toward an irreversible tipping point?
Could the collapse of the AMOC be closer than we think, and what would it mean for daily life across Europe and the Americas?
If the AMOC is weakening but not yet collapsed, how much time do we really have to act—and can geoengineering or rapid emissions cuts still make a difference?