Updated

Updated · ESPN · Jul 13

Scheffler, McIlroy Lead 25 Open Favorites at Royal Birkdale as England Chases First Claret Jug Since 1992

Updated

Updated · ESPN · Jul 13

Scheffler, McIlroy Lead 25 Open Favorites at Royal Birkdale as England Chases First Claret Jug Since 1992

Q: Which overlooked player has the perfect accuracy-focused game to conquer the reimagined Birkdale?

Russell Henley looks like the best overlooked fit for Royal Birkdale. The case is straightforward: Birkdale’s redesign and expected firm, fast conditions put a premium on finding fairways, avoiding trouble and scrambling well around tightly defended greens. That profile points away from pure power and toward precision, exactly where Henley stands out. The strongest evidence is statistical. Henley is cited as No. 1 on tour in driving accuracy at 73.4%, a major asset on a course where thick rough, rebuilt bunkers and closely mown runoffs are designed to punish misses. He also brings the kind of tidy short game Birkdale should reward, with strong scrambling numbers and enough approach quality to create chances without overpowering the course. That makes him a cleaner course fit than many bigger names whose advantage is length. Royal Birkdale is expected to play more like Harbour Town, Colonial or Sea Island than a venue where drivers can dominate, and Henley’s profile aligns closely with those tests. He is also outside the top tier of favorites, which is why he qualifies as overlooked rather than obvious. Aaron Rai is another credible answer because he is one of the world’s most accurate players and already a major winner this year, while J.J. Spaun and Collin Morikawa also fit the precision theme. But if the question is who has the most tailor-made, accuracy-first game for this version of Birkdale, Henley is the standout.

Q: How will the new 240-yard 15th hole, a 'big talking point,' decide the championship's winner?

The winner is likely to be the player who survives Royal Birkdale’s new 15th with the fewest mistakes, because it is built to create late swings in score and momentum. At roughly 240-241 yards, the new par-3 is the longest one on the course and arrives deep in the closing stretch, where Opens are often decided. Its challenge is not just length. From the tee, the green looks smaller than it is, with a narrow entrance that can distort judgment. In firm, fast links conditions, that matters: players must control both carry and release, often with a long iron or hybrid, and choose whether to fly it on or use the ground. The danger is concentrated around the green. Bunkers sit left, while a steep run-off right and long can leave one of the hardest recoveries on the course. Because the hole can play downwind and the green runs front to back, shots that are only slightly over-hit may not hold. That makes par a strong score and turns a small error into bogey or worse. Its real influence is strategic and psychological. Birkdale this week is expected to reward precision, restraint and short-game skill more than power. The 15th fits that philosophy perfectly: it asks for exact club selection, trajectory control and calm under pressure. In a tight championship, the player who accepts par, avoids the runoff and handles the atmosphere best is the one most likely to lift the Claret Jug.

3 articles · Updated · ESPN · Jul 13

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy head the top 25 favorites for the 154th Open, which tees off Thursday at Royal Birkdale.
Scheffler arrives as defending champion but after his first missed cut in nearly four years at the Scottish Open, while McIlroy seeks a seventh major and thrives on windy links setups.
England’s strongest hopes include Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Rose and PGA champion Aaron Rai, with the country chasing its first Open winner since Nick Faldo in 1992.
Royal Birkdale hosts The Open for the 11th time, and its altered layout could reshape the test: the 4th is now 219 yards, the 14th a 602-yard par 5, and the 15th a 241-yard par 3.
The course returns to the rota for the first time since Jordan Spieth’s 2017 victory, with accuracy expected to matter as much as star power in the season’s final major.