NOAA Sees 97% Odds of Strong El Niño by December as 81% Point to Very Strong
Updated
Updated · Los Angeles Times · Jul 13
NOAA Sees 97% Odds of Strong El Niño by December as 81% Point to Very Strong
3 articles · Updated · Los Angeles Times · Jul 13
Summary
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said a three-month period ending in December has a 97% chance of a strong or very strong El Niño, including an 81% chance of a very strong event.
Warmer central and eastern Pacific waters and weakening trade winds are reinforcing each other, a feedback loop that forecasters say is likely to intensify the pattern over coming months.
Southern California faces higher odds of above-average winter rain, flash floods, landslides and coastal flooding, though past very strong El Niños have produced sharply different rainfall totals in Los Angeles.
Globally, El Niño can shift storms toward the southern United States, dry out Australia and parts of northern South America, and raise the risk of land and marine heat waves.
Record June sea-surface temperatures are amplifying concern that El Niño could help push global temperatures into new highs in the months ahead.
As a 'Godzilla' El Niño meets record ocean heat, what unprecedented weather extremes will it unleash globally this year?
Is this year's El Niño pushing vital ocean ecosystems and global fisheries past a point of no return?
The new El Niño threatens a major shock to food prices. How vulnerable is the global food supply chain?
The 2026 Super El Niño: Historic Heat, Global Disruption, and the Climate Change Connection
Overview
As of July 2026, the world is preparing for a powerful El Niño event, with forecasts showing a 97% chance it will last through early spring 2027. El Niño is a natural climate pattern that develops every three to five years, marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming disrupts global weather patterns, often leading to extreme weather events. The 2026 El Niño is expected to be unusually strong, with NOAA suggesting it could be one of the most intense in modern history, raising concerns about significant worldwide impacts.