Updated

Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Jul 10

USD Index Holds Near 100.80 After Testing 100.64 Support, Risks Slide Toward 100.00

Updated

Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Jul 10

USD Index Holds Near 100.80 After Testing 100.64 Support, Risks Slide Toward 100.00

Q: With conflicting signals, will the US dollar's 'coiled spring' snap up or down?

The balance of evidence favors the dollar snapping higher in the near term, though the move is not yet confirmed. Technically, DXY is sitting on an important support zone around 100.64 after slipping into oversold territory on intraday charts. That raises the chance of a short-term rebound. But the broader daily and weekly signals are less friendly: daily studies are still pointing lower and weekly stochastics are unwinding from overbought levels, which often leaves room for another leg down before a durable base forms. The key line is 101.00. A sustained move back above that level would suggest the recent pullback is stabilizing and could open a grind toward 101.50, then 101.80-102.00. If DXY instead closes below current levels and loses 100.64 decisively, the chart points to 100.20 and 100.00, with 99.70 as the next deeper retracement target. Fundamentally, the dollar still has stronger support than the charts alone imply. Research from J.P. Morgan, Bank of America and others points to a more dollar-positive backdrop: a relatively resilient U.S. economy, sticky inflation, firm Treasury yields and a Federal Reserve that has turned less dovish. That combination keeps rate differentials supportive for the greenback and underpins the “coiled spring” thesis. So the most likely path is a near-term upside snap, but only if 101.00 is reclaimed. Until then, the dollar remains vulnerable to one more washout toward 100 before any stronger rebound takes hold.

1 articles · Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Jul 10

100.64 support held for now, leaving the USD Index DXY consolidating around 100.80 after testing the March 31 monthly low.
Intraday oversold signals have flattened, but daily studies are still falling and weekly stochastics are unwinding, keeping pressure on the dollar index.
A close below 100.64 would deepen late-June losses and expose the 100.20-100.00 zone, with 99.70 marking the 50% retracement of the April-June rally.
Upside relief remains limited: 101.00 is the first stabilizing level, and only a close above it would shift DXY into consolidation below 101.50.