IEA Warns US-Iran Fighting Threatens 14 Million Bpd Oil Flows as Hormuz Traffic Halts Again
Updated
Updated · Al Jazeera English · Jul 10
IEA Warns US-Iran Fighting Threatens 14 Million Bpd Oil Flows as Hormuz Traffic Halts Again
3 articles · Updated · Al Jazeera English · Jul 10
Summary
The IEA said renewed US-Iran fighting has put the global energy-market recovery at risk, warning the return of hostilities could prolong the crisis as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz stopped again.
Rival readings of last month’s US-Iran memorandum on Hormuz triggered this week’s clashes, after the waterway’s reopening had helped lift global oil supply by 4.1 million bpd in June.
Up to 14 million bpd of crude flows were cut by Hormuz’s effective closure, and supply still remained 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels even after June’s rebound.
Brent held near $76.37 a barrel despite the disruption, suggesting traders still expect stabilization, though the IEA said tighter inventories could add price pressure in coming weeks.
The agency’s 2027 surplus forecast of 4.62 million bpd still assumes a ceasefire and gradual reopening, while US, Iranian and regional intermediaries including Pakistan and Qatar pursue renewed diplomacy.
With Hormuz closed and supply slashed, why isn't the global oil market panicking?
As new trade corridors bypass Hormuz, is the strait's strategic power ending?
Could this conflict be the shock that finally breaks global fossil fuel dependency?
2026 US-Iran Conflict Halves Strait of Hormuz Oil Transit, Driving Global Energy Shock and Economic Turmoil
Overview
As of July 10, 2026, tensions between the United States and Iran have intensified, leading to renewed hostilities and diplomatic accusations that directly impact global oil markets. Iran accused the US of violating key agreements, especially regarding control over the vital Strait of Hormuz. These developments have raised serious concerns about oil supply stability, causing oil prices to remain high and global inventories to fall. The ongoing conflict and uncertainty over shipping routes have kept insurance and freight costs elevated, highlighting the fragile state of energy security and the global economy.