IEA Sees 2026 Oil Demand Falling 1 Million b/d as Hormuz Disruption Clouds Recovery
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 10
IEA Sees 2026 Oil Demand Falling 1 Million b/d as Hormuz Disruption Clouds Recovery
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 10
Summary
Global oil demand will shrink by 1 million barrels a day in 2026, the IEA said, the first annual decline since the 2020 pandemic slump.
The agency tied the drop to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption, which hit Middle East production and exports and left the contraction heavily concentrated by region and fuel product.
Hormuz traffic has slowed to a trickle again after attacks on ships and renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, undermining the IEA's assumption of a ceasefire and gradual reopening of the waterway.
The IEA still expects the market to swing back into surplus later this year if tanker flows recover, helped by supply growth outside the region and weaker-than-expected demand.
Brent eased to $76.25 a barrel and WTI held at $72.09, while the agency warned any recovery in oil flows will be neither swift nor linear without a lasting peace deal.