EU Tariffs Could Shift 2035 EV Share to 56.4%-68.9% Across 20 Countries
Updated
Updated · Nature.com · Jul 10
EU Tariffs Could Shift 2035 EV Share to 56.4%-68.9% Across 20 Countries
2 articles · Updated · Nature.com · Jul 10
Summary
A Nature Energy study projects the EU-wide EV share in 2035 at 56.4% to 68.9% after the bloc’s July 2024 tariffs on China-made battery EVs, versus 64.4% under business as usual.
The spread depends on automaker responses: market withdrawal produces the weakest adoption, while low-cost onshoring in Europe can more than offset tariff damage and speed electrification.
Adoption losses fall hardest on price-sensitive vehicle classes and lower-income EU countries that depend heavily on affordable China-produced EVs, showing uneven effects from a uniform trade measure.
The analysis covers 20 EU countries and 10 vehicle classes, tracing how tariff-driven cost shocks feed through total cost of ownership to reshape consumer uptake.
The findings suggest EU trade policy and industrial policy will need closer alignment if the bloc wants a resilient and inclusive shift to electric vehicles.